From Michael to Morgan: A Radio History of No. 1 Debuts

From almost the beginning of rock and roll, songs were debuting at No. 1 on the UK charts. The first two were Elvis Presley’s “Jailhouse Rock” and “It’s Now or Never.” Over the years, the list included “Get Back” by the Beatles, “Don’t Stand So Close to Me” by the Police, “Two Tribes” by Frankie Goes to Hollywood, and the early-’90s reissue of “Bohemian Rhapsody” by Queen.

There were event records that came “straight in” at No. 1 — as the various hosts of the BBC Radio 1 countdowns would phrase it. Sometimes they were records for the ages: “Do They Know It’s Christmas” by Band Aid?  Sometimes, not: “Do They Know It’s Christmas” by Band Aid 2? It could sometimes be a secondary title from a superstar band – “The Fly” by U2, but often it was a sign of a band at peak stardom with an obvious hit – “Is There Something I Should Know?” by Duran Duran or Slade’s original “Cum on Feel the Noize.”

As somebody who worked at Billboard at the time, although not directly on the Hot 100, I couldn’t wait for a song to come straight in at No. 1 in America. It was exciting to imagine a monster hit that undeniable, particularly in the mid-’90s when radio really needed hits and the product was just starting to flow again.

When it finally happened, it was not quite that. “You Are Not Alone” turned out to be the closest to a real hit among the new songs on Michael Jackson’s HIStory compilation. It was a bigger Mainstream Top 40 record than I remember — No. 4 — although I don’t remember it as a consensus power. It got about 150 Mediabase spins at reporting stations last week, despite its R. Kelly involvement. But there’s plenty of Michael Jackson megahits to compare it to, and “You Are Not Alone” never felt like, say, “Beat It” in either magnitude or incubation time.

Two of the first four songs to debut at No. 1 were indeed career-highlight moments, Mariah Carey’s “Fantasy” and “One Sweet Day.” But the fourth song that year to debut at No. 1 was “Exhale (Shoop Shoop)” by Whitney Houston. Like Mariah Carey’s “Honey” a few years later, that one just seemed to reflect an all-out push for a too-big-to-fail artist. (That said, “Exhale” did get to No. 4 at the time and still clears [barely] 100 spins now, thanks to airplay at Adult R&B radio.)

In other words, the No. 1 debut that should indicate an undeniable hit has instead included songs that come with an asterisk since the very beginning. In the first years, it could be goosed by heavily discounted singles or a song finally getting a commercial single after weeks or months of pent-up demand. Then it began to include those songs that were intended as collectible souvenirs — Elton John’s Princess Diana tribute or an American Idol coronation — more than a radio hit. 

Now, in an era where streaming drives the top of the charts, debuting at No. 1 doesn’t necessarily indicate a mainstream radio hit at all. But it can still be part of a story. On the morning of its release, “What I Want” by Morgan Wallen & Tate McRae was clearly the poppiest song on the I’m the Problem album, but I didn’t read it as the obvious smash that “I Had Some Help” was. By Monday, it was No. 1 on the Hot 100, but also generating instant requests at CHR. It also prompted a Business Insider story detailing all 84 No. 1 entries. I was curious how many of those over the past 30 years now read as radio hits.

The answer is about half:

• Of those 84 songs, 41 are now getting 100 spins or more at monitored reporting stations;
• 28 went to No. 1 in CHR airplay on either Billboard or Mediabase
• 44 went top-10 in CHR airplay. That’s not the only arbiter, of course. “Rapstar” by Polo G was No. 1 both at Rhythmic Top 40 and Hip-Hop/R&B, but those formats don’t quite have the ability to make a song ubiquitous now, either.

The most-spun No. 1 debuts this week are:

1. Post Malone & Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” 
2. Kendrick Lamar, “Squabble Up” (still in play as a current)
3. Morgan Wallen, “Love Somebody” (just out of current rotation)
4. Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
5. Kendrick Lamar & Tate McRae, “What I Want”
6. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers”
7. Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)”
8. Harry Styles, “As It Was”
9. Future & Metro Boomin’, “Like That” — driven by Hip-Hop and Rhythmic airplay
10. Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero”

The least played No. 1 debuts are:

1. Baauer, “Harlem Shake”
2. Clay Aiken, “This Is the Night”
3. Fantasia, “I Believe”
4. Carrie Underwood, “Inside Your Heaven”
5. Taylor Hicks, “Do I Make You Proud”
6. BTS, “Life Goes On”
7. BTS, “Permission to Dance”
8. Jimin, “Like Crazy”
9. Drake f/SZA, “Slime You Out” — this song received one spin; those above it had none
10. Oliver Anthony Music, “Rich Men North of Richmond” — also got one spin

Of those songs that read more like hits at the time, here are five with negligible airplay now:

• Britney Spears, “3” (four spins)
• Britney Spears, “Hold It Against Me” (8)
• Puff Daddy, “I’ll Be Missing You” (11) — before his legal troubles, an airplay staple
• Katy Perry, “Part of Me” (23)
• BTS, “Butter” (27) — reached No. 6 CHR, helped by the excitement of the high debut, even with the knowledge of the group’s fanbase and their influence.

As was the case when monitored airplay and verified sales were added to the charts more than 30 years ago, programmers are more likely to acknowledge a No. 1 debut when it anoints a song already in their consideration set. Many CHR PDs still fought Wallen’s “Love Somebody” despite a No. 1 debut and aren’t rushing to cross over other high debuts like “I’m the Problem.” A single with a CHR feature like McRae is a different story.

It’s hard to visit the “debuting at No. 1” question without discussing radio’s timing. Even when a No. 1 (or similarly high) debuting song is up 23-12 at CHR in its third chart week, I’m still seeing people whose focus is streaming writing that radio is resisting that song. We haven’t reached the point where “straight in at No. 1” yet means “straight in to power” to most people. 

At a moment when radio is trying to confirm more than set the cultural agenda, it doesn’t matter to the consumer press that some No. 1 debuts go on to be “Flowers” or “Sucker” by the Jonas Brothers, and others are “Jimmy Cooks” by Drake or “Hiss” by Meghan Thee Stallion. Certainly, “All Too Well (Taylor’s Version)” was a pop-culture moment without Top 40, although Hot AC did eventually take it top 25. But it’s good for both artists and radio when there is alignment.

Thanks to Billboard’s Gary Trust for his help in compiling this article.