Who Had the Hits In 2020?

Earlier this week, veteran consultant Guy Zapoleon took his annual look at the musical cycles impacting the Top 40 radio format. Zapoleon found that those stations were disproportionately focused on “pop,” which, by his calculations, represented 67% of their music. Zapoleon encouraged Top 40 radio to take more songs from other formats—the thing that typically defines Top 40.

Those recommendations dovetail with newly released BDSRadio stats on the number of top-20 hits at each format last year. Top 40 radio, which was the most musically aggressive format when we first looked at the stats in 2013, has fallen from fourth to seventh overall over the last year. Top 40 is now breaking fewer songs than the Adult Top 40 format that is supposed to be its more conservative cohort. Overall, Top 40 has 20 fewer top hits last year than it did in 2013. (Accordingly, Zapoleon says CHR had 30 consensus power rotation songs this year, rather than the usual 20.)

Rhythmic Top 40 remained the format with the most top-20 hits in 2020, followed again by Triple-A, which had its most robust year for product to date. The other significant gainers were Christian AC, which had 10 more hits than it did in 2019, and switched places with Top 40, up from No. 7 to No. 4, and Active Rock which held rank at No. 5, but is up noticeably from 2013. 

Here’s this year’s ranking of top 20 hits by format, and here’s what we wrote last year.

The BDSRadio count of top-20 hits by format is one way of measuring the year-to-year strength of radio formats that play current music. Having the most chart hits is not, of course, the same thing as “playing the hits.” Formats such as Mainstream AC are traditionally successful with almost no new music. Also, in 2020, many factors, including the continued exodus of younger, more active listeners, played across a pandemic-altered listening landscape that was unkind to most current-based formats.

But feeling good about the available current product is a sign of any format upturn, and it’s noteworthy that both Contemporary Christian and Active Rock stations were among 2020’s few success stories. In Dallas, Christian AC KLTY led the market, including much-admired KHKS (Kiss 106.1), for much of the year, even before the pandemic. 

As a group, Christian AC programmers adjusted their clocks to become more current-driven several years ago; they are also continuing to weed some heritage titles that still test. Both of those moves are hallmarks of a format on the rise, driven by a rise in available uptempo pop and the continued strength of praise-and-worship music.

After reading Zapoleon’s evaluation of Top 40, one wonders if the 20 fewer hits vs. 2013 represent all the songs that are not crossing over from other formats. It is worth noting that while Zapoleon codes the format’s current “pop” offerings as 67% of the format, “pop” as CHR practices it now can range from the uptempo pop of “Blinding Lights” to Justin Bieber’s “Yummy,” typical of the downtempo rhythmic pop that sometimes comes from major artists like Bieber and Ariana Grande, and sometimes from left-field artists propelled by streaming stories.

In the most recent heyday of Top 40, 2008-13, uptempo rhythmic pop was the driver. Artists might reside within the format, at R&B, or even at Alternative, but all of them made uptempo “turbo-pop” hits and CHR was wildly successful, even if the music mix sometimes felt claustrophobic. CHR embraced uptempo house-flavored hits from Dua Lipa, Doja Cat, and others last year, but still relied heavily on slower rhythmic pop, especially as it began to seek out more hits from TikTok. That there are 20 fewer hits than before is, in part, because CHR cannot support 20 more hits in a small number of styles. 

Here’s a look at the other major formats and their product availability:

Rhythmic Top 40 has been the format with the most top-20 hits since 2016 and leads again this year. Rhythmic Top 40 continues to benefit from being at the intersection of Top 40, Hip-Hop, and the Latin Urban format, as well as many of the streaming success stories. But while the format’s biggest hits of 2020 included DaBaby, Roddy Ricch, and Jack Harlow, it’s also worth noting that the No. 2 song in the format this week is an R&B ballad from Jhene Aiko and H.E.R.

Triple-A has been the format that has most aggressively fought for the “music discovery” franchise, as challenges proliferate. In 2020, with the concert scene that represents a large part of the format’s business on hold, one PD felt that his peers were doubling down on music discovery — because they had more time, and because the audience needed the diversion. It’s also significant that Triple-A is the format with a significant number of noncommercial reporting stations. And the number of top-20 hits likely reflects the breadth of both product and stations. Bruce Springsteen and the Rolling Stones both had chart hits last year, even as the format continues to lean to the Alternative side.  

At R&B/Hip-Hop, KKDA (K104) Dallas Director of Operations George Cook began the year concerned about dormant core artists — Kendrick Lamar, J. Cole, Rihanna, Migos — before two of them, Drake and Cardi B., emerged with two of the year’s biggest records. Those who remained inactive created an opening for new prolific hitmakers — Roddy Ricch (who had the No. 1 and No. 2 songs of the year); DaBaby (three in the top 30); Lil Baby (four in the top 30); Megan Thee Stallion (only two in the top 31, but they were “Savage” and her appearance with Cardi B. on “WAP”). Both R&B and Rhythmic PDs also mentioned the posthumous success of Pop Smoke. But there were also three songs from Chris Brown in the year’s top 30. And the big story for many PDs has also been the influence of female-led R&B — Summer Walker, H.E.R., and Aiko, who is currently No. 1.

Active Rock had several prominent ratings success stories this year. It has benefitted from the increased ratings influence of adult-male listening, and perhaps as the most direct musical reflection of our turbulent times. Some PDs note that there’s still a split between smaller-market reporters focused on edgier product and larger-market outlets that have become more like the Heritage Rock stations of old, with more Alternative crossovers and more Greta Van Fleet-style retro acts.

Adult Top 40 was one of radio’s least musically aggressive formats in 2013. For the first time since we began these measurements, however, it had more top-20 hits than the Mainstream Top 40 format. While there had been concern that Adult Top 40 was taking too many of its cues from Mainstream, in 2020 it had a key role in helping more variety from artists such as AJR, Lewis Capaldi, Maren Morris, and JP Saxe make its way to Mainstream. Adult Top 40 also ratified a number of songs — “Only Human,” “Rain on Me” — that mid-charted at Mainstream Top 40 but became significant hits for a number of stations.

Alternative has been a pop-flavored format for years. Last year, many of its stations, particularly the Entercom outlets, drew attention for playing 24KGoldn and Post Malone. The format also saw the continued resurgence of teen punk, both from comeback acts like All Time Low and from Machine Gun Kelly’s sudden career change. The format’s top three all crossed over to some extent, but there’s still likely upside for both formats if Top 40 begins to acknowledge Alternative more.

Urban AC’s No. 1 song at this writing is by Chris Brown and Young Thug. Its No. 1 song for 2020 is by Brown and Drake. The No. 3 song of the year was by Wale and Jeremih. Besides the continued rise of adult Hip-Hop, Urban AC is seeing the increased influence of a new group of female artists — Summer Walker, Snoh Aalegra, Queen Naija — as well. But veterans Charlie Wilson and Toni Braxton also had a significant presence at the format.

Adult Contemporary has at least one “I can’t believe it’s an AC record” every year. In 2020, it was Post Malone’s “Circles.” AC, despite a slight rise in the number of top-20 hits, had relatively few consensus titles, and continues to rely heavily on those songs handed down from Top 40, despite its travails. A slightly increased number of songs made it to the top 20, although it’s usually the chart’s top five where a song can be declared an AC hit.

Country began paying serious attention to streaming and other metrics this year. The format seemed as if it were addressing the recent dearth of female artists. It was also the current-based format that seemed to be holding up the best despite changes in radio usage. At year’s end though, ratings were starting to decline in a way that won’t be fully understandable until after the holiday ratings period. There were twelve hits by female-led acts vs. ten from the previous year. And two of the songs that were seen as game-changing — Morgan Wallen’s “7 Summers” and Priscilla Block’s “Just About Over You” — are just two more songs on a typically slow-moving chart now, although Wallen’s long-term prospects are likely better. There’s always been division on whether musical aggression in Country is a good thing, look for more on this as we approach this year’s virtual Country Radio Seminar.

Special thanks to Adam Foster of BDSRadio for his help supplying this data.