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Handicapping the Summer Song of 2023

Sean Rossby Sean Ross
November 11, 2023
0

David Guetta Coi Leray Anne Marie Baby Don't Hurt MeIn the late ’10s, you could tell when the Song of Summer candidates were lining up at the starting gate, thanks to multiple collaborations from EDM’s superstar DJ/producers. That died down for a few years. This April we had a different type of lineup — “Hot Flip Summer” —a s reworkings of ’90s/early- ’00s hits were rushed to radio, further spurred by the success of “I’m Good (Blue),” “Creepin’,” and the overall trend of the last few years. 

Within a week or so, we saw:

  • David Guetta, Anne-Marie & Coi Leray, “Baby Don’t Hurt Me,” based on Haddaway’s “What Is Love,” one of the bright spots of the 1993-94 CHR doldrums;
  • Rita Ora f/Fatboy Slim, “Praising You,” reworking his “Praise You.”
  • Kim Petras w/Nicki Minaj, “Alone,” flipping Alice Deejay’s “Better Off Alone”
  • Pitbull & Lil Jon, “Jumpin,” derived from House of Pain’s “Jump Around” by an act with a 15-year history of flips. 

They joined Flo Rida’s “What a Night,” which was already in circulation at some of the stations, such as WIXX Green Bay, Wis., where both Flo Rida and Pitbull have been core artists again since the former’s reemergence last summer. Because of “December 1963 (Oh What a Night)” being remixed and a hit again in 1993, Flo Rida is technically a ’90s remake, too. From the female hip-hop side, we also have Icandy’s “Keep Dat,” going back further for KC & the Sunshine Band’s “Boogie Shoes.”

As was often the case with the producer-driven contenders of 2016-19, no one song is the breakaway hit yet. Guetta leads the field at No. 22 as I write on Wednesday. Petras and Rita Ora are Nos. 27 and 28 respectively. Pitbull and Flo Rida are No. 38 and 39. Besides the internal competition, those songs are informed by the heavier-than-ever presence of late-’90s/’00s throwbacks at CHR, as well as WBBM (B96) Chicago and WPOW (Power 96) Miami going to a mostly throwbacks format. As recently stated, I’m OK with the rewrites — CHR needs both the texture and the tonnage — as long as they’re not all we have.

Last year, the three songs that would dominate the summer — “As It Was,” “About Damn Time,” and “First Class” – were already hits or on their way, while “Running Up That Hill” had just emerged as a surprise contender. This year, when I asked Facebook friends for their Song of Summer predictions, I got more people saying “I’m not sure we’ve heard it yet” than I’ve heard in a while. But I’ve also heard from KMVQ (99.7 Now FM) PD Jazzy Jim Archer calling the overall field “the largest groups of songs that I feel good about at one time in a long while.”

The “haven’t heard it yet” part could change Thursday at 7 p.m., when Dua Lipa’s Barbie single, “Dance the Night,” brings her ’70s retro sound back to the radio. (UPDATE: It’s out now, along with the news that there’sa while Barbie soundtrack of uptempo pop on the way.) Also coming Friday, Onerepublic’s “Runaway.”  “I Ain’t Worried” was a summer 2022 hit that I’m proud to say was tipped here last year. There are also ongoing rumors that new Olivia Rodrigo music is imminent.

Song of Summer candidates must be bouncy, uptempo, tropical, or summery in some way, which means this is never a mere listing of songs that will be hits during summer. I always prefer to give the nod to a song that actually peaks during summer, meaning that it won’t be “Flowers” (although Miley Cyrus will certainly be heavily played all summer) or “Calm Down,” the inevitable summer-sounding song that was a winter/spring hit, although the success of Rema & Selena Gomez means more afrobeat is inevitable. 

The uptempo song going into the summer with the most momentum is Post Malone’s “Chemical.” There are also a number of reader votes for Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,” (sort of Post Malone-ish as well). “Last Night” is already a power at most of the secondary CHRs that are defying CHR’s current travails (and a seven-week Hot 100 No. 1). With a current 1981-style Country crossover boom, the possibility of Country’s Song of Summer being everybody’s Song of Summer suddenly looms.

Jonas Brothers Waffle House“Waffle House” by the Jonas Brothers has an even older reference than Dua Lipa’s hits, bringing to mind the summer of 1976’s “Moonlight Feels Right” (as well as the Yacht Rock summers of 1980-81). The brothers also have doubled down with the just-released “Summer Baby,” thus far the most clearly intentioned song title. (The Onerepublic song also has a yacht rock feel but is more uptempo.)

If your frame of reference for summer 1979 is Dave Edmunds, not the Doobie Brothers, there’s a truly left-field contender in Tegan & Sara’s “Girls Talk” remake. There’s another left-field throwback to 1988-89 Euro in Conan Gray’s “Never Ending Song.”

Some friends wonder if radio is still in charge of the Summer Song discussion. My belief, thus far, is that radio is still needed to achieve the mass that defines a defining song, but it helps that “Cupid” by Fifty Fifty has both streaming and international fandom on its side. There had been murmuring about whether K-Pop’s American moment had passed; last week, iHeart moved its Honolulu Asian Pop station to a bigger signal; “Cupid” was the first current song played. 

Taylor Swift’s “Karma” has the potential to give her a Song of Summer for the first time. It’s also the only instance of a radio single from deeper inside a project in contention here. (UPDATE: Now, there’s the Ice Spice remix, too.) Swift is helped by the event of summer thus far, thanks to the Eras tour. There’s also bringback airplay on Swift’s “Cruel Summer” at WXKS (Kiss 108) Boston and KMVQ.

Each spring, I write about the Alternative crossovers that should help bring pop/rock into the Song of Summer discussion. Fall Out Boy’s “Love From the Other Side” has gotten a quiet beachhead at some CHRs. Lovelytheband’s “Sail Away” is finally being worked to pop. Thirty Seconds to Mars’ “Stuck” is not yet, but is uptempo, bouncy, and developing quickly at Alternative. Melanie Martinez’s “Void” is developing at both CHR and Alternative.

There is certainly the possibility of a sync- or streaming-driven outlier. This week, that’s “Dog Days Are Over” by Florence + the Machine, which has the additional advantage of potential end-of-summer topicality. On SiriusXM’s TikTok Radio, the second-most-played reworking of a previous hit, after iCandy, is not any of the above flips but the actual remake of Timbaland’s “Give It to Me” by Henrik.

Pitbull Lil Jon JumpinIf you do believe that Top 40 is no longer the epicenter of the Song of Summer discussion, the best case for it is Latin (and sometimes Rhythmic Top 40) radio, where that alliance with streaming is particularly potent. Eslabon Armando & Peso Pluma’s “Ella Baila Sola” and Rosala & Rauw Alejandro’s “Besa” have been among Spotify’s Today’s Top Hits for week, now joined by Bad Bunny’s “Where She Goes.”  

With Country radio going into the summer with substantial excitement about current product, Wallen is not the only Summer Song candidate. Look for a separate article on Country’s summer lineup next week.

And if you’re feeling as if there’s not enough music in contention yet, I’ve got dozens of left-field picks as part of my Big Hits Energy playlist, also featuring the major summer contenders here.

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Sean Ross

Sean Ross

Sean Ross is a radio business researcher, programming consultant, conference speaker, and a veteran of radio trade journalism at Billboard, Radio & Records, M Street Journal, and others. For more than a decade, his weekly writings have been collected in the Ross On Radio newsletter; subscribe for free here. https://tinyurl.com/mhcnx4u

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