The End of the Turntable Hit?

The good news in late June was what veteran morning man (and music director) Gene Baxter dubbed “The Best Billboard Top 10 in Ages.” The good news that week was that the top of the chart was dominated by legitimate radio hits and not by superstar album cuts or left-field streaming oddities (although a few of them briefly started out that way).

The continuing good news is that with the exception of one debut week for a Morgan Wallen Country-only hit (so far), the top 10 has been usable mainstream hits. The problem is that three months later, six of those are still the same songs, including Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control” — this year’s “Blinding Lights” — and Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” now celebrating week No. 11 atop the charts. As consultant Guy Zapoleon puts it, “We’ve gone back to a long-refrigerated platter of hits.”

The not-so-great-taste-of-fridge might have something to do with Top 40 radio’s arc through the summer. There were promising ratings success stories (although not across-the-board growth) in May through July. In August, the momentum was visibly slowed, and I believe that’s partially because there weren’t enough new hits on a week-to-week basis. We say that “Lose Control” is still stronger than anything else, but what if that’s because there’s not anything else?

Some of that clearly has to do with the dynamic between radio and labels, particularly as labels further whittle their radio staffs, as Atlantic did this week, and work fewer records to radio. The randomness that characterized the Billboard chart until this summer still lurks just below the top 10. Radio is not inclined (and rarely asked) to break songs that don’t stream. Streaming still can’t quite make a song a mass-appeal smash without radio, although “Hot to Go!” is certainly as close as we’ve ever gotten, and for many people, it was the song of the summer. It all results in fewer hits, but also fewer almost-hits.

What’s gone, in particular, is the “turntable hit.” Often peaking somewhere around No. 8 or 9 — just short of power rotation — turntable hits were those songs (often uptempo) that were never ratified by sales or research. When a song got that far on airplay alone, it was either because radio really wanted to play it, or because of label determination to deliver at least a top 10 single for a superstar artist. The term was a pejorative, but an affectionate one.

Songs that peaked in the No. 8-13 range comprised many of the songs with the highest “Lost Factor” in my recent calculations. Those songs placed respectably on Billboard’s year-end Top 100 but have virtually no airplay now. Often, listeners never got to hear those songs enough for them to take hold.  You could argue that there might have always been only 10-12 real hits. But radio always seemed better off with something new in the wings, rather than an abyss.

There have been, recently, a handful of songs whose Mediabase airplay-chart position differs significantly from the streaming-driven Hot 100:

• Charli XCX’s “360” is No. 9 Top 40 airplay, No. 49 Hot 100;
• Madison Beer’s “Make You Mine” peaked at No. 10 airplay, without making the Hot 100
• Most significantly, Sabrina Carpenter’s “Feather” was a No. 1 airplay, No. 23 Hot 100, following the No. 10 CHR/No. 56 Hot 100 “Nonsense.”

It is hard for me to imagine that “Espresso,” the summer smash that performed in all metrics, could have happened without the work that Island and radio put into Carpenter’s career for 18 months. Beer has always had an under-the-radar following here; Charli XCX has that, a history of hits, and her current pop-culture prominence. All the songs in question help CHR with tempo. I’m glad that labels have pursued them. I still believe in a role at any format for “songs that sound good on the radio.”

There’s also a recent story worth considering. When syndicated Lost 45s host Barry Scott did his first Top 100 countdown in 1985, the top songs were ’70s megahits that radio just didn’t want to play anymore: “Heartbeat, It’s a Lovebeat”; “Billy Don’t Be a Hero”; “I Think I Love You” by the Partridge Family; “The Night Chicago Died”; “One Bad Apple” by the Osmonds.

This year, Scott’s final Top 100 countdown — he says there will be something different next Labor Day — was led by “Lovely Day” by Bill Withers, a No. 30 Hot 100 and No. 6 R&B hit in 1977. That song, not as much a turntable hit as an R&B hit that deserved better at Top 40, has found a more prominent place in the pantheon, along with Withers himself, thanks in large part to recent TV and advertising syncs.

But a lot of what Scott calls the “shuddabeens” that now dominate his requests can now be described as classic turntable hits, among them these songs in the countdown’s top 20:

• Sweet, “Love Is Like Oxygen”
• Billy Ocean, “Love Really Hurts Without You” — still a UK radio staple. So is Diana Ross’s “Chain Reaction,” never close to a hit here, but also in Scott’s top 15
• Sniff ’n’ the Tears, “Driver’s Seat”
• Tracey Ullman, “They Don’t Know” — one of the few 1984 hits with a high “Lost Factor”
• Jacksons, “Enjoy Yourself.”

How to deal with a disintegrating radio/labels relationship is a column unto itself. Besides, I’ve already written it this year, and all that’s changed is the severity of the situation. But it is worth restating that the strength of any format at a given time is often measured in the depth of its available music. The audience that “Love Is Like Oxygen” found again is the one most likely to be drawn to it, but it’s still interesting to see songs like it showing themselves to be something other than programmers’ indulgences all these years later.