Handicapping the Summer Song of 2025

As recently as last year, the Summer Song derby was always good for artist comebacks, from Kid Rock to Enrique Iglesias to Hozier, eventually getting to the point where a song about summer doesn’t even have to be involved. Connie Francis, an unlikely comeback even by the standards of the TikTok era, has been propelled back into pop culture by an album obscurity, but she did have a summer hit about summer around the same time.

Connie Francis’s “Vacation” was not the Summer Song of 1962. Billboard’s retroactive calculations say that was the dreary “Roses Are Red (My Love)” by Bobby Vinton. Regular ROR readers know that my “Summer Song” criteria include “must be uptempo or otherwise summery in some way.” They also know that I don’t consider Billboard to have the final, binding say every year. But if Connie Francis remains in the conversation for longer than, say, Lesley Gore, why not consider her actual summer song alongside “Pretty Little Baby”?

Over successive Song of Summer handicaps, I’ve been wondering when streaming was going to throw the field of contenders into disarray. Two years ago, it helped revive a four-year-old Taylor Swift album cut. Last year, it helped my summer winner overtake the strongest field in years; it also helped make “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” the type of record that no format had quite embraced, a song welcome almost everywhere, rather than nowhere. 

To some extent, what streaming has given us this year has been disruption. The once-standard practice of lining up superstar acts about 6-8 weeks ahead of Memorial Day has already claimed some intended candidates, which were under immediate scrutiny because of low or rapidly declining streaming numbers, and slowed others. (I have thoughts on that as well this week.) It isn’t just established acts that have fallen out of contention in recent weeks; there was also near-instant-judgment on Zara Larsson’s “Pretty Ugly.”

A month ago, the most obvious hit that streaming had unleashed was Alex Warren’s “Ordinary.” That song seems poised to dominate through the summer and beyond. (It’s also at No. 2 on Billboard and seems like the kind of hit that could stay all summer if it gets to No 1, unless there’s something else phenomenal.) I’m still not sure if “Ordinary” meets my tempo rule. Or Jessie Murph’s “Blue Strips.” Or Charli XCX’s back-from-the-web “Party 4 U.” Or Morgan Wallen & Tate McRae’s “What I Want.”

A month ago, I was bemoaning the lack of anything as obvious as Post Malone & Wallen’s “I Had Some Help.” If I had thought you would be in the mood for yet another ROR column bemoaning the state of pop music, I already had the title “The Merry Month of Meh” standing by.  But on April 25, I was listening to BBC Radio 1 and heard “Undressed” by Sombr, making this the second year in a row I had actually gotten to hear a major Summer Song contender on the radio first. (Last year, it was Post/Morgan on SiriusXM Hits 1.) Since then, I’ve been liking the field more, and not just because of one song.

The best part about “Undressed” is that it’s not the only mainstream uptempo song that streaming has legitimized, despite an uneven track record. There’s also Ravyn Lenae’s “Love Me Not,” Role Model’s “Sally, When the Wine Runs Out,” and D4VD’s “Feel It.” (The other Sombr hit, “Back to Friends,” goes more in my midtempo pile, but is obviously phenomenal itself.) At the very least, any of them borne out as hits will fill the quirky uptempo-pop slot that Hozier’s “Too Sweet” did last summer (and for months thereafter).

I’m also excited about the prospect that 2025’s Song of Summer might come from Hip-Hop. There’s roughly equal support from Facebook friends for “Undressed,” “Ordinary,” “Sally…” and Drake’s “Nokia.” I love that the biggest uptempo song from a heritage artist in that group comes from one who was earnestly being encouraged to quit the business a year ago. I also love seeing Doechii’s “Anxiety” atop CHR at the moment, although there’s speculation whether the excitement of “rap song that samples Gotye” will sustain all summer. The other heavily discussed combination of Hip-Hop and major artist is Doja Cat’s “Jealous Type,” which for the last month has existed only in online snippets that recall Janet Jackson’s mid-’80s hits.

Other songs worth mentioning: In the UK, Calvin Harris & Clementine Douglas’s “Blessings” is shaping up as a top contender there and is also on Hits 1 in North America. Benson Boone’s “Mystical Magical” is an object lesson for me in why songs defy snap judgment. I didn’t like it on New Music Friday. Two weeks later, I heard it on three very different stations around the world, and now it sounds like a candidate.

There’s also the first week bafflement of Rihanna’s “Friend of Mine.” I’ve struggled over whether to include it here. I’m not entirely ruling out the possibility that we might get beyond its initial sonic provocation in the way we did with “SexyBack.” With the greater Hip-Hop presence, it also feels like Moliy X Silent Addy f/Shenshea’s “Shake It To The Max” could also make its way to CHR from Hip-Hop and Rhythmic.

“Leave Me Alone” by Renee Rapp is a great last-minute entry, and her existing fanbase reminds me of Sabrina Carpenter 18 months ago or Gracie Abrams before “That’s So True.” (Update: It’s no longer the newest entry, MGK’s “Cliché” came out Friday morning.)

Going into summer, Wallen/McRae is the fastest-developing Country crossover, although Shaboozey’s “Good News” is picking up speed. It shouldn’t be a zero-sum issue, but at this writing it feels like there’s more Hip-Hop than Country (or Country Hip-Hop) for the first time in a while. It might be that Top 40 PDs became wary of Country titles, although their resolve buckled quickly last summer. The biggest hybrid for now is actually No. 2 on the Adult R&B chart right now: 803Fresh’s “Boots on the Ground.” Then there’s the summer bid from Gary Le Vox, Akon, and De La Ghetto, “Hold the Umbrella.”

The uptempo hits from established artists with significant momentum now include Sabrina Carpenter’s “Busy Woman,” Ariana Grande’s “Twilight Zone,” and Tate McRae’s “Sports Car.” The latter is another song that kicked in with me thanks to airplay.

I have dozens of left-field Song of Summer candidates of my own. You’ll find them, along with all the major contenders on my Big Hits Energy playlist. And what are your picks?