The Return of the Lost Factor

Classic Hits radio is a different place than it was two years ago. The ’70s have been whittled down even further. Some stations are pushing into the 2000s in a way that not only obscures the difference between Classic and Adult Hits, but between Classic Hits and Mainstream AC. KRTH (K-Earth 101) Los Angeles is starting to play “California Love.” Streaming is threatening to usurp radio as the leader of the past, and has propelled “Running Up That Hill” by Kate Bush back on to the charts to prove it.

But without a sync as phenomenal as “Running Up That Hill,” songs continue to move relatively slowly in and out of the public consciousness. This week, I returned to the Lost Factor, a series of calculations that began two years ago to determine what songs had travelled the furthest between hit and obscurity in the time since they made Billboard’s Top 100 Hits of their respective year. 

In updating our original calculations, I chose 1983 for a few reasons: 

• I began the Lost Factor with 1982 more than two years ago. In that time, much of the music from the first half of the year feels more like a holdover from a previous era than ever;
• 1984 is considered the epicenter of Top 40’s ’80s heyday by many, but it is the year that was featured last weekend on syndicated reruns of American Top 40, meaning that songs on the chart this week would have an atypical boost. (You will see the anniversary of Michael Jackson’s death figure into this week’s calculations, although only one song appears to be significantly changed.)
• 1983 was a beloved year. It also gives me a chance to look at one song whose fortunes you would expect to change, Musical Youth’s “Pass the Dutchie,” propelled back into prominence by Stranger Things, but not at the same level as Bush.

I wanted to include “Pass the Dutchie” because this year’s fluctuations in spin count are actually the precursor to another column using 1983 data, “The Lost Factor vs. Streaming.” With relatively glacial changes in airplay for 1983’s Top 100 hits over the last two years, we’ll instead compare those songs to on-demand streams for the same week — to see which songs might have eluded normal radio decision-making, and also to what extent radio is still setting the agenda for our musical memories.

I also chose 1983 because it is the year used in last year’s AT40 vs. the Lost Factor, but it’s not a year I’ve profiled individually before. For the first time, I’m showing Lost Factor ratings for an entire year’s Top 100 so that you can see the year-to-year movement, or relative lack thereof.  

As always, the Lost Factor formula is determined by assigning points to each song on the year-end chart and dividing those by BDSradio spins over the last seven days for the U.S. and Canada. A song can have a low Lost Factor because it remains heavily played, but some modestly spun songs that weren’t as big to begin with can also have a lower Lost Factor. While you can make a case for recalculating Lost Factor against a longer period, our seven-day numbers have been surprisingly stable over the years.

Soft pop has always been vulnerable to the lost factor, and those are the songs showing the greatest percentage loss of spins since 2022: Lionel Richie’s “Truly,” Laura Branigan’s “How Am I Supposed to Live Without You,” and Dionne Warwick’s “Heartbreaker” are the top three, despite Warwick’s improved currency. The Soft AC radio resurgence of the last five years has boosted some titles, but those not chosen are falling away faster.

There’s also been a falloff in some early-’80s “corporate rock” titles. The ’80s are still the center lane of Classic Hits, but there’s enough Guns ‘N’ Roses and Bon Jovi that some early-’80s rock is starting to fall away, such as “Twilight Zone” by Golden Earring, which has the greatest loss in number of spins. The No. 2 declining song is “Sexual Healing” by Marvin Gaye, a song that does indeed feel like it was more of an AC and Classic Hits library staple two years ago (or five years ago) than today.

We’ve always used 1.0 as the dividing line between “lost” — songs receiving disproportionately low airplay to their hit status at the time – and “not lost.” Six songs have crossed the line over 1.0 in the last two years:

• Asia, “Don’t Cry” (1.0)
• Greg Kihn Band, “Jeopardy” (1.0)
• Adam Ant, “Goody Two Shoes” (1.1)
• Patti Austin & James Ingram, “Baby Come to Me” (1.1)
• Sergio Mendes, “Never Gonna Let You Go” (1.3)
• Styx, “Mr. Roboto” (1.3)

As for “Pass the Dutchie,” there is a noticeable change in its fortunes over the last two years, although maybe not as much as you’d expect from a song that streamed on the same level as some current hits last week. “Pass The Dutchie” was already under 1.0 because of low year-end points, but it gained only about 20 spins this week over our comparable week in 2020.

Here’s how the Top 100 songs of 1983 changed over a two-year period. Join us here next time for The Lost Factor vs. Streaming.