What Power Rotation Says About CHR In 2023

Does Top 40 radio have a powers shortage?

In 2020, veteran consultant and format observer Guy Zapoleon noted that Mainstream Top 40 had 28 songs that became consensus powers — songs considered strong enough for power rotation by most stations. While 2020 was already considered a year with fewer hits, the result of COVID’s impact on listening levels and current-based formats in particular, that number has only decreased since, with 27 powers in 2021 and 23 last year.

So far in 2023, there have been only 14 consensus powers to date. That includes Doja Cat’s “Paint the Town Red,” which many CHRs are converting to power rotation this week. At the current clip, Zapoleon estimates that there will be only 17 powers this year. “Paint the Town Red” is the only song in the top 5 less than 10 weeks old. 

A few notches down are other songs that wouldn’t die. Rema & Selena Gomez’s “Calm Down,” a song advertised in ROR’s Song of Summer 2022 issue, is now in its 47^th week on the Mediabase CHR chart. Miguel’s “Sure Thing” is 33 weeks and 12 years old, depending on whether you count by its CHR or R&B/Hip-Hop chart history.

When Ross on Radio first took a look at the available powers in 2019, even before the numbers plummeted, stations were already relying heavily on older titles. Some were the “hits that wouldn’t die.” But a few songs that never became consensus national hits were also bubbling into power rotation occasionally to fill a need. By last winter, after 18 months of CHR being dominated by the undead — “Blinding Lights,” “Stay,” “Heat Waves” — the line between power and recurrent had become so blurry that I asked “Has Radio Destroyed the Recurrent?” 

The rise of streaming has also served to blur the distinctions between power and “power new” and/or “sub-power,” depending on how stations were structured. Last summer, when we last looked at what songs stations were powering, WHTZ (Z100) New York had slowed its rotations and brought power and “power new” closer together. Z100 has since returned to a more traditional five songs in a 105-109x-a-week rotation.

In some worldviews, the declining number of powers, as well as an increased reliance on not just recurrents but gold, is the logical adaptation to a different landscape of shorter listening occasions, and the decline of a Top 40/pop music monoculture. There are CHR stations successfully using a conservative power rotation, including KMVQ (Now 99.7) San Francisco, which still manages to be aggressive on new music overall. In general, though, with September PPM ratings showing Top 40 headed into another cruel fall, it’s hard to say that the format’s overall slowing is working. 

My worldview has generally been that a lack of fresh powers may be driving the short listening occasions and reduced cultural footprint, as much as reflecting it. Top 40 seemed slow to acknowledge the Barbie phenomenon. Recently, I’ve asked if radio is taking full advantage of Olivia Rodrigo’s GUTS with a recent power and not one but two uptempo climbers. 

In part, my sense that CHR could find powers sooner has been driven by the Power Indicator Score calculations by Longboard Insights’ Mike Castellucci. His distillation of streaming and other metrics is one of several recent attempts to create a Moneyball-like formula for determining the radio viability of streaming hits, but it’s the one that I’ve seen on the most regular basis. Besides being predictive of callout in many cases, Castellucci also notes that Power Indicator is less volatile on a week-to-week basis.

The Power Indicator Score showed “Dance the Night” as a viable power at least two weeks before most CHRs converted it. “Barbie World” crossed the 9.0 mark on July 1. “Paint The Town Red,” his highest-rated song this week at a 10.0, has been above a 9.0 score since Aug. 12 and hit the 10.0 mark in early September. 

All three of Olivia Rodrigo’s songs— “Vampire” (9.5), “Bad Idea Right?” (9.5) and “Get Him Back” (9.0) – are well above the 7.5 threshold of viability. Current hits above a 9.0 also include SZA’s “Snooze” (9.5), Taylor Swift’s “Cruel Summer” (9.5), and Luke Combs’s “Fast Car” (9.0). “Calm Down” and “Sure Thing” are both at an 8.8.

Here’s a look at power rotation at five different recently successful CHR stations, based on Mediabase-monitored spins between Sept. 27 and October 3.

WHTZ (Z100) New York:

• Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice, “Barbie World” (109)
• Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (107)
• Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” (106)
• Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (106) — more than doubling its spins and seemingly replacing “Calm Down”
• Miley Cyrus, “Used to Be Young” (105)

WKQI (Channel 955) Detroit: 

One of the format’s biggest recent success stories, WKQI is No. 2 this month, 9.2-8.4, after three months atop the market. Its next tier below the five songs listed here are two songs around 65x — Jelly Roll’s “Need a Favor” and Usher’s “Good Good” – meaning that the station is keeping Detroit radio’s R&B-meets-rock (and, in this case, Country) tradition alive.  

• Doechii, “What It Is (Block Boy)” (108) — more than doubling and seemingly replacing “Vampire”
• Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (107)
• Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice, “Barbie World” (101)
• Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (95)
• Miguel, “Sure Thing” (95)

KMVQ (Now 99.7) San Francisco

Now 99.7 has gone 3.2-3.9-4.6 over the past three months. Its two powers are confirmed smashes, followed by five songs in the 79-83 spin range (“Paint the Town Red,” Rodrigo’s “Bad Idea Right?,” Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night,” Doechii, and Nicki/Ice Spice). But there are also aggressive new rotations for Nicki Minaj’s “Last Time I Saw You” (71x), Tate McRae’s “Greedy” (62x), and Doja’s “Agora Hills” (59x).

• Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer (117)
• Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (117)

WKRZ Wilkes-Barre, Pa.

One of several smaller-market success stories that I’ve followed over the past few years with a very different group of hits, as well as a slower power rotation that would be sub-power on some stations. WKRZ was the market leader in August, up 10.3-10.4 12-plus.

• Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (78)
• Lewis Capaldi, “Wish You the Best” (73)
• Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” (73)
• David Kushner, “Daylight” (70)
• Jelly Roll, “Need a Favor” (69)

WIXX Green Bay, Wis.

WIXX went 13.3-12.3 in the spring ratings, but remains the most consistently successful CHR. Its turnover on power is slower still. WIXX has been known to have its own older local hits rebound into power after many months, but doesn’t have any examples this week.

• Jelly Roll, “Need a Favor” (63)
• Shinedown, “A Symptom of Being Human” (58)
• Fall Out Boy, “We Didn’t Start the Fire” (57)
• Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (53)
• Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (52)

Power rotation is just part of the ecosystem for maximizing potential new hits at CHR. When power crawls, or relies too heavily on year-long hits, it also clogs up sub-power, sometimes making it hard for developing records to negotiate the region between No. 8 and No. 14 before other potential new hits come along. 

KMVQ’s approach is interesting because it allows for “hit insurance” in power, but also allows for high spins on sub-power and aggressive rotation on new music. Most significantly, KMVQ also doesn’t force five songs over the 100x spin threshold. 

What are your thoughts on power rotation in 2023? Please leave a comment.