When should a Top 40 station play a song that isn’t ratified by streaming numbers? Is callout also important, and how long should you for a song to develop a callout story? Is there a place for a song that just sounds good on the radio? A song by a core artist? Or are “radio records” a willful refusal to give the audience what they want? An explanation for the format’s overall ratings woes?
Ross on Radio analyzed the five top CHRs in Nielsen PPM-measured markets, as well as the four lowest-rated PPM Top 40 stations. Of the winning stations’ top 20 records, the mix was usually consistent—about 75% songs that had both radio and streaming support; about 20-25% songs that could be categorized” as “radio records”; maybe one song (5%) that was more streaming-driven. For low-rated stations, the percentage of radio songs was only slightly higher.
The streaming vs. airplay/research debate has been an ongoing one for CHR programmers for years. It gets considerable fuel in these pages both from weekly columnist Mason Kelter of the syndicated evening show host Liveline, but also from recurring contributor Matt Bailey of The Hit Momentum Report. Both regularly question radio’s decision to play songs that don’t stream and overlook some that do. But winning CHRs are generally playing at least a few songs that aren’t streaming hits in a given week–a mix of songs ratified by callout, newer titles, and older songs that endure through research.
The successful CHRs we looked at, based on rankings from ratings expert Chris Huff, were WNCI Columbus, Ohio (8.2 share in August), KMXV (Mix 93.3) Kansas City (6.9), WHTZ (Z100) New York (6.6 on Long Island; 5.6 at home), WKRQ (Q102) Cincinnati (6.2), and WRVW (The River) Nashville. The four low-rated stations we looked at were all under a two-share, and were all stations rated in their home market (as opposed to a station pulling a 1-share in an adjacent market).
For the purposes of this exercise, we defined “radio record” as any song not in Spotify’s Top 200 on September 27. That included the top 10 “Mr. Know It All” by Teddy Swims and the recently released “Bass Persuades” by Miley Cyrus, but it could also include some surprisingly big records where the streaming story had passed, such as Zara Larsson’s “Lush Life.” And on this particular day, Bruno Mars’ “I Just Might” was not in the top 200.
“Streaming songs” were those that had not yet cracked the top 25 in CHR airplay, meaning not just recent phenomena like Adela’s “Ain’t in LA” and Nicole Kidman,” but also songs like Dexter & the Moonrocks’ “Freakin’ Out,” Noah Kahan’s “Orbiter,” or Temper City’s “Self Aware” that had some Top 40 support but still had their biggest stories elsewhere.
Songs didn’t always fall into the pile you’d expect. Sombr’s “My Body Isn’t Ready” might have been considered a “radio record” after initial streaming faded, but last week it reentered the top 200 and we’re counting it as a “both” song. Ariana Grande’s “Petal”—like “Orbiter,” the sort of airy midtempo song that streamers love—was propelled to second single status almost instantly upon the release of the similarly titled album by its streaming story. This week, though, it has fallen below No. 200 streaming, meaning that it’s a radio record now.
Mostly, though, roughly three-quarters of the top 20 at successful stations are songs on which programmers and streamers agree—“Dracula,” “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” “Stupid Song.” “Babydoll” may have come to radio’s attention through streaming, but it’s a top 5 airplay record now, and counts as both. So does Malcolm Todd’s top 15 “Earrings.” We did give the benefit of the doubt to some songs like Katseye’s “Animal” that clear both bars, but are considerably bigger with programmers.
It’s important to note that this story isn’t suggesting that programmers take the CHR airplay chart more seriously than streaming data. That chart is its own funhouse mirror, still influenced by promotional hype and overnight spins, even at a moment when labels are less willing to expend resources on radio. The question being asked here is only “does streaming always win the coin toss?” For winning stations, the answer is “not always.”
PPM’s highest-rated CHR station, WNCI, has five “radio records” among its 20 most played. “Mr. Know It All” is its most spun. “Bass Persuades” is in the top 20. Harry Styles, who has always done well at WNCI, even with some songs that weren’t national powers, is in the top 20 with both “American Girls,” which stopped short of being a consensus hit, and the new “Dance No More,” a song that Z100 also decided to support.
KMXV has five “radio records” among its top 20. (That does include “I Just Might,” which is hardly a risk for any CHR at this point.) Along with Q102 and Kiss 108, it also has one “streaming” song in its top 20—in this case Taylor Swift’s “Cleveland!,” a song with obvious relevance to the market. Kiss 108’s streaming-driven choice is equally regional, Kahan’s “Orbiter.”
WKRQ’s streaming-driven choice is “Freakin’ Out.” Both Huff and I have always regarded Q102 as a Mainstream CHR, despite its Adult Top 40 reporting status. One indicator is that its top 20 includes a Hip-Hop title, French Montana’s “Ever Since You Left Me,” in this case one of its four “radio records.”
The winning CHRs’ “radio record” quotient ranged from 4-6 titles out of 20. By comparison, the low-rated Top 40s we looked at ranged from 5-8. Readers can decide for themselves whether that’s significant. PPM ratings are the ones thought to be most determined on a record-by-record basis. But a six-share differential probably hangs on more than a few song choices. All four of the low-rated stations are, for instance, second CHRs in their market.
It’s also important to reiterate that many of the “radio songs” we identified here are recurrents, not developing songs. At this writing, Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” isn’t in the top 200. Neither are the two Myles Smith titles that are both in the top 15 of one of the lower-rated stations. For several stations, the “radio record” was Sabrina Carpenter’s “House Tour,” which is currently a power at Kiss 108. But if you looked at the low-rated stations, none were playing more than four bulleted songs, and some were playing as few as two.
Beyond PPM’s purview, one of the CHR format’s most consistent successes is WIXX Green Bay, Wis. That station has seven titles in its top 15 that aren’t in the Spotify 200, starting with Swims at No. 1, but also including Alex Warren’s still power “Fever Dream,” “Bass Persuades,” and the Beaches’ “Edge of the Earth.” Conversely, that top 20 also includes streaming hits “Self Aware,” “Freakin’ Out,” and Ella Langley’s “Be Her,” another song where CHR airplay is far outstripped by streaming success.
WIXX’s top 20 also highlights a larger issue for the format right now. While “streaming hits” like “Be Her” and “Self Aware” are likely also ratified by callout for that station, WIXX is a winning station that is willing to draw from both the “radio record” and “streaming hit” groupings. Kelter and Bailey are right that PDs are missing streaming stories, too. At this moment, many programmers are making songs run both streaming and airplay gantlets, rather than looking for hits with either story. That helps explain why we’re still discussing “Espresso” and “Nice to Meet You” in anybody’s top 20.
I’ve always been more favorably disposed to “radio records” than some of my peers. I still believe CHR needs tempo, starpower and freshness. Even after Cyrus’ precipitous drop on the album charts this week, I still like “Bass Persuades” in this moment when it delivers all three of those. I’m less patient with those less immediate songs that linger between No. 6 and 12 waiting to cross one more chart threshold, long after the excitement is gone. Several weeks ago, I felt that both “Hit The Wall” and “My Body Isn’t Ready” were overstaying their welcome. I feel differently about Sombr, now that it’s an example of airplay driving a streaming rebound.
That songs can often calcify around No. 11 is a function both of fewer major releases and the slowness of callout, especially with CHR’s lessened agenda setting power. One oft-cited solution is making sure that developing titles get more concentrated daytime airplay sooner. In Country, a winning format with a good mix of streaming and research-driven hits, it is often the case that songs start to test just after reaching No. 1. That seems to hold equally true for songs that needed 22 weeks to reach the top or 46 weeks. We could at least be getting an answer on whether a song is “Mr. Know It All” or “Hit The Wall” earlier. Overall, with neither streaming nor airplay as literal roadmaps, it also means that programmers’ judgment is more important than ever.
