Every Song Has a Story, But Few Have a Consensus

As radio programmers have struggled to find product in recent years, trying to watch streaming for potential hits has been difficult, whether it’s trying to find songs that sound like “radio records” or figuring out if a streaming or TikTok story is just a short-lived blip. Add to that now one more challenge — the available metrics rarely agree.

Ross on Radio cross-referenced both Spotify and Shazam’s top 200 songs last week with the TikTok Billboard top 50. In addition, I looked at the top 20 requests of the week from the syndicated CHR/Hot AC night show LiveLine. Looking at the songs that are top 10 in any one metric gave us just under 60 songs. Of those, only four had a significant story in all four measurements. Fewer than 20 songs hit even in three of the four categories.

Requests might seem like an odd mix with streaming metrics. They haven’t been talked about much at radio, in particular because stations receive fewer and rarely have somebody to take or tally them. But, like streaming, they give an indication of listener interest before radio’s (ever-slower) callout research kicks in. Requests also provide an easier answer to the question “but are these really my listeners?”

LiveLine’s national platform means that it generates enough requests to be meaningful. Earlier this fall, LiveLine’s top 10 requests began appearing in the show’s Ross on Radio advertising. Now, host Mason Kelter is publishing a weekly column, Mason’s Observations, also driven by the show’s request data. 

There are ongoing attempts to codify and condense multiple metrics on behalf of radio. Eighteen months ago, Longboard Insights unveiled its “Power Indicator Score” with the intent of using streaming and other metrics to predict callout. More recently, Matt Bailey, formerly of Coleman Insights, is keeping track of songs’ ups and downs in streaming with his new Hit Momentum Report newsletter.

Even with the new tools, it’s hard to identify potential hits. Both the new streaming calculations and LiveLine’s request info are just as likely to tell you which songs aren’t generating an active response. Bailey has written a lot about trying to separate first-week superfan streaming from subsequent playability for a song. 

Looking at the data makes it clear why there are so few songs emerging. TikTok has famously usurped radio as a gatekeeper, but much of what it identifies as its top hits has not yet translated into streaming and Shazams, much less radio. Yet, labels are reluctant to pursue a TikTok story, letting potential hits be culled, often before we know about them.

Of the 20 songs atop the TikTok Billboard chart this week, 12 did not show up in any of our three other indicators. Only two were songs that were also ratified by all three other metrics: requests, Spotify, and Shazam. Even looking at the entire TikTok top 50, there were only four songs with across-the-board stories. 

To some extent, that’s because all of the current hits by Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan have already come off the TikTok chart, although some continue to play on SiriusXM’s TikTok Radio. Also, TikTok’s top two songs last week were both bringbacks – the Yeah Yeah Yeahs’ “Maps” (confirmed only by Shazam) and Alphaville’s “Forever Young” (no other metrics, except that radio is already playing the song’s new David Guetta reworking). Shazam has its own older titles (recently “Don’t Dream It’s Over” by Crowded House) to itself.

Of the four songs that do have a story in Spotify, Shazam, TikTok, and in LiveLine requests, two are established hits. Two are songs that are already on radio’s radar, although one really only got there this week. They are:

• Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” — a former No. 1 CHR hit;
• Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” — the current No. 2 CHR hit, although one not currently being powered by many major-market Top 40s. That’s a likely indicator that it isn’t researching proportionately;
• ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, “APT” — Top 20 and the second largest spin gainer at CHR;
• Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True” — Two weeks ago, it looked like the ballad “I Love You, I’m Sorry” was going to be the song that radio had to acknowledge in addition to the less-active current radio single, “Close to You.” “True” feels more like a radio record. It’s No. 3 Spotify, No. 15 requests, No. 16 TikTok, No. 15 Shazam.

The threefers also include a mix of songs on and not yet on pop radio’s radar:

• Billie Eilish, “Wildflower” — every metric but requests, although the highest showing is No. 19 Spotify;
• Gigi Perez, “Sailor Song” — everything but LiveLine requests, No. 9 TikTok, No. 6 Spotify;
• Myles Smith, “Stargazing” — a song that has had radio callout success stories for a while, it cracked LiveLine top 20 requests for the first time this week;
• Oscar Maydon & Fuerza Regida, “Tu Boda”;
• Tate McRae, “It’s OK I’m OK” — the No. 20 request on LiveLine; No. 103 Shazam and No. 145 Spotify;
• The Weeknd & Playboy Carti, “Timeless”;
• Tyler the Creator, “Like Him.” 

In general, I’ve been of the belief that programmers, given the lack of current hits, should be trying to use metrics to put songs on the radio, not to keep them off. I was happy to see a few stations play Surf Curse’s indie-rock “Disco” as a result of the TikTok story alone. I think a case can still be made for passive songs that help the sound of CHR/Hot AC. The challenge in digesting early active info is that songs that don’t initially sound like a radio hit very rarely have a story as swift or obvious as, say, “Million Dollar Baby.” With stories in three metrics, “Sailor Song” is clearly now a record people like, but for those fans, radio is now playing catch-up.