Lost Factor 2001: Similar Sound, Different Destinies

In 2001, Top 40 has taken on a decidedly more extreme edge. We are in the waning moments of the teen-pop boom, and some radio programmers are drawing a “line in the sandbox,” resisting a third wave of younger acts. Pop/rock is no longer “Semi-Charmed Life” or “Sex and Candy”; it’s the poppiest derivatives of rap/rock — Linkin Park and “Butterfly” by Crazy Town — and the beginning of teen punk. 

Mostly, Top 40 is dominated by the other children of destiny. The poppier R&B acts influenced by Destiny’s Child and TLC are at their peak. I’ve written a lot about the influence of Clear Channel’s “Kiss-FM” stations, but such songs as Dream’s “He Loves You Not” or Toya’s “I Do!!” were the glue of that format, and there were usually a half-dozen like them at CHR at any given time.

In our latest Lost Factor analysis, which measures songs’ stature on Billboard’s Year-End Top 100 at the time against their current airplay at BDSradio-monitored stations in the U.S. and Canada, many of the songs represented fall into familiar categories: teen pop, female soft pop (Faith Hill), and even a few hitmakers at the end of a hit streak (Janet Jackson, Ricky Martin). But 2001’s top 15 highest Lost Factors also include at least three “child of Destiny” acts, and a few teen acts who had segued to a similar sound.

Here are the Top 15 songs with the highest Lost Factor, according to BDSradio.

1. Ricky Martin & Christina Aguilera, “Nobody Wants to Be Lonely” (LF 46, spins for the week 0)
2. S Club 7, “Never Had a Dream Come True” (40, 0)
3. Faith Hill, “There You’ll Be” (35, 1)
4. R. Kelly f/Jay-Z, “Fiesta” (19, 3)
5. Willa Ford, “I Wanna Be Bad” (17, 0)
6. Janet, “Someone to Call My Lover” (16, 4)
7. Jessica Simpson, “Irresistible” (13, 3)
8. Evan and Jaron, “Crazy for This Girl” (12, 4)
9. Dream, “He Loves You Not” (10, 7)
10. Toya, “I Do!!” (10, 4)
11. Eden’s Crush, “Get Over Yourself” (9, 0)
12. Craig David, “Fill Me In” (7, 9)
13. Mariah Carey f/Cameo, “Loverboy” (7, 3)
14. Madonna, “Don’t Tell Me” (7, 10)
15. O-Town, “All Or Nothing” (7, 9)

In the late ’90s, R. Kelly became the clearest example of an artist whose subsequent unplayability clearly went beyond the songs themselves. (Gary Glitter never appeared because the top 10 “Rock and Roll Part 2” somehow never made Billboard’s year-end Top 100.) The now-convicted and jailed Kelly was responsible for five of the top 30 Lost Factor songs of 1995-99. He’s at No. 4 here, and also had the No. 17 song (“I Wish”). 

Here are the 10 songs that most overperform their chart status. As usual, it’s a mix of some songs that are still airplay monsters and others that steadily overperform a smaller number of year-end chart points. U2’s “Beautiful Day” is an interesting case that defies customary expectations. “End-of-the-CHR-hit-streak” songs are often the best examples of veteran artists atop the Lost Factor. Mariah Carey would have another hit streak, but it’s not hard to explain seeing “Loverboy” here. But Madonna’s “Don’t Tell Me” was hailed as a prime example of artist reinvention. (To be fair, it was also No. 34 for the year, vs. No. 75 for U2, making it easier for “Beautiful Day” to punch above its weight now.)

1. Fuel, “Hemorrhage (In My Hands)
2. Outkast, “So Fresh, So Clean”
3. Travis Tritt, “It’s a Great Day to Be Alive”
4. Nelly, “E.I.”
5. 3 Doors Down, “Kryptonite”
6. U2, “Beautiful Day”
7. Shaggy f/Rayvon, “Angel”
8. Mary J. Blige, “Family Affair”
9. Kenny Chesney, “Don’t Happen Twice”
10. QB Finest f/Nas & Bravehearts, “Oochie Wally”