I took encouragement for radio from the phenomenon of “Barbenheimer” in 2023, watching movies and the theatergoing experience re-enter the cultural conversation. Then, for the next two summers, the story was that moviegoing didn’t have a driver of the same potency.
The summer of 2024 could have been radio’s “Barbenheimer.” Maybe we needed a catchy compound name for the Song of Summer candidates. “Tipsyespresso”? “PostSabrina?” But the product flow didn’t last for long, and last year’s contenders were, well, “Ordinary.”
So, it’s worth noting that this Memorial Day, Bloomberg published a story called “The Summer We Went Back to the Movies.” The story itself is behind a paywall, but some of the highlights are:
- “Almost every weekend, major studios are releasing a new potential blockbuster in cinemas, and analysts expect the domestic box office to deliver its best performance since 2019.”
- Ticket sales for the May through Labor Day weekend period are forecast to be between $4.1 billion and $4.3 billion. “A summer haul above $4 billion is on par with the pre-pandemic era,” writes Thomas Buckley.
- The summer excitement is driven by returning franchises — Star Wars, Toy Story, The Devil Wears Prada, Jackass, Minions, Moana, Spider-Man, Paw Patrol, Scary Movie — but supplemented by left-field horror hits Obsession and Backrooms.
- The parade of potential blockbusters is such that the summer forecast doesn’t depend on any one title. Bloomberg shared the analysts’ predictions even after Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu had been judged a relative disappointment.
The story did note that “the higher revenues mask a decline in attendance. The rate at which people go to the movies has fallen to half what it was 25 years ago” — a sharper usage decline than radio’s. Even there, we find an encouraging radio parallel. While higher ticket prices likely factor into higher revenues, so do increased usage occasions from existing cume.
On Memorial Day, radio’s prospects weren’t as exciting. The Song of Summer 2026 candidates were lingering spring hits, finally growing into powers (Zara Larsson with and without Pink Pantheress, Tame Impala), third-and-fourth singles (Sabrina Carpenter, Justin Bieber), and new releases from a relatively narrow swath of acts (Ariana Grande, Olivia Rodrigo, Gracie Abrams).
We’d already heard from some franchise artists (Harry Styles, Noah Kahan) who seemed uninterested in releasing anything that might be called a summer banger. In a summer that could have been his to reclaim, Drake released three albums conspicuously devoid of anything that might be mistaken for “One Dance” or even “Nokia.” Ultimately, there was little that could even compete with a resurgent “Billie Jean.”
Two weeks ago, Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You” became the new frontrunner. Like “I Had Some Help’ and “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” two years ago, Swift has a shared Country radio and CHR footprint. As we saw with “Espresso” and “Ordinary,” that’s not always necessary, but it definitely helps at a moment when Top 40 is not single-handedly driving the shared experience.
“I Knew It, I Knew You” also ties in nicely with Hollywood’s blockbuster summer. Maybe we shouldn’t give up so soon on Lady Gaga & Doechii’s “Runway” (or find something else from the Prada soundtrack). Maybe we need to scour soundtracks more closely for potential hits. I am fully in favor of a left-field cover battle between the original “Grogu” theme from Ludwig Göransson and a disco version by any living descendent of Meco Monardo.
Broadcasters have long decided that radio’s fortunes will be driven by anything other than the current music available to stream elsewhere. Movie theaters, unlike radio, will have a head start on this summer’s hits, but ultimately they will all be available to stream as well.
What’s driving viewers back to the movies this summer are big names and more hits — not better food delivered to your seat or the convenience of online ticketing. Labels haven’t delivered us a stream of blockbusters yet. A few of our TikTok oddities will turn out to be Obession or Backrooms.
Radio has more ability than exhibitors to take matters into our own hands, but first we would have to agree that music matters, and that “The Summer We Went Back to Radio” is possible.
