Every Saturday at noon, author Tom Nichols live-tweets the vintage American Top 40 countdown on Sirius XM 70s on 7. In the first hour, you can pretty much count on these things happening.
- If the year is 1974 or before, somebody in the thread will suggest that Nichols make good on his longstanding threat to live-tweet an ‘80s countdown episode instead.
- Somebody, often Nichols, will tweet something like, “I’ve never heard this. What is this piece of garbage?” When that happens, there are decent odds of it being a song I love. But it might be a song that I didn’t like on first listen either.
- Another listener will be unfamiliar with a song, and ask, as @MecCoffee did last week, “How does this happen when I listened to the radio for hours every day back then?”
That last question seems easy to answer. It makes sense that any song peaking in the chart’s bottom third could be missed by somebody at the time. Last week’s countdown was May 8, 1976. In the mid-‘70s, major-market Top 40s averaged 25-30 current songs per week. Music enterprise and regional differences meant those 25-30 songs were different across the country. If it was important to you to know about the hits beyond your market, you were one of the people who sought out AT40.
I was definitely one of those people. By then, I was following the charts, and had multiple radio sources to hear different types of hits — three local Top 40s, an adventurous AOR, small-market ACs, out-of-town AMs at night. But I was a few months away from having access to AT40 every week or being able to buy Billboard regularly. I didn’t yet know every song. I also had no access to R&B radio at the time. No. 24 was the Blackbyrds’ “Happy Music,” an R&B hit I didn’t hear until years later. When I started studying the charts soon afterwards, I would discover a top-10 song from just a few years earlier that was new to me and many other near-hits.
The weekly AT40 comments made me wonder about the typical frame of reference for those listeners who loved music but didn’t live and breathe music growing up. And how did that frame of reference intersect with the Lost Factor, our formula for determining the difference between songs’ prominence as currents and their airplay now? Were there any new insights to be gained by combining the two?
We chose Billboard’s top 40 songs for the week of May 14, 1983 — a moment when CHR’s comeback was exploding. A year after our initial calculations, we recalculated Lost Factor for those songs — year-end chart points divided by the last seven days of monitored airplay according to BDSRadio — to produce fresh airplay data, but also to have consistent spin counts with those previously unmeasured songs that didn’t make the Top 100 of 1983. Only 10 songs on that week’s AT40 did not make the year-end chart.
Then we took the additional step of asking approximately a handful of Ross On Radio readers to look at the May 14, 1983, chart and try to recall which songs they were aware of as then-current radio hits, vs. which they did not learn until later, if at all. We specifically looked for readers who were not yet in the business or following it closely yet; only one person was a regular AT40 listener, and his recollections were based on what he remembered hearing on local radio.
These are the 40 biggest hits in the land on May 14, 1983, along with their chart peak, year-end number (if any), and recently calculated Lost Factor. We did not attempt to calculate a Lost Factor for those songs that did not make the year-end chart, but you’ll see that they offer insight of their own.
TW | TITLE | ARTIST | PEAK | YR END | SPINS | LF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | BEAT IT | MICHAEL JACKSON | 1 | 5 | 1444 | 0.07 |
2 | LET'S DANCE | DAVID BOWIE | 1 | 18 | 911 | 0.09 |
3 | JEOPARDY | GREG KIHN BAND | 2 | 21 | 72 | 1 |
4 | OVERKILL | MEN AT WORK | 3 | 54 | 20 | 2 |
5 | SHE BLINDED ME WITH SCIENCE | THOMAS DOLBY | 5 | 23 | 143 | 0.55 |
6 | COME ON EILEEN | DEXY'S MIDNIGHT RUNNERS | 1 | 13 | 1216 | 0.07 |
7 | FLASHDANCE…WHAT A FEELING | IRENE CARA | 1 | 3 | 1200 | 0.08 |
8 | LITTLE RED CORVETTE | PRINCE | 6 | 25 | 1199 | 0.06 |
9 | SOLITAIRE | LAURA BRANIGAN | 7 | 59 | 6 | 7 |
10 | DER KOMMISSAR | AFTER THE FIRE | 5 | 30 | 154 | 0.50 |
11 | I WON'T HOLD YOU BACK | TOTO | 10 | 69 | 8 | 4 |
12 | MY LOVE | LIONEL RICHIE | 5 | 73 | 43 | 0.70 |
13 | PHOTOGRAPH | DEF LEPPARD | 12 | 90 | 1607 | 0.01 |
14 | RIO | DURAN DURAN | 14 | NA | 555 | NA |
15 | STRAIGHT FROM THE HEART | BRYAN ADAMS | 10 | 71 | 209 | 0.14 |
16 | MR. ROBOTO | STYX | 3 | 28 | 68 | 1 |
17 | TIME (CLOCK OF THE HEART) | CULTURE CLUB | 2 | 34 | 52 | 1 |
18 | EVEN NOW | BOB SEGER | 12 | NA | 4 | NA |
19 | AFFAIR OF THE HEART | RICK SPRINGFIELD | 9 | 57 | 3 | 15 |
20 | FAITHFULLY | JOURNEY | 12 | 81 | 1544 | 0.01 |
21 | MORNIN' | JARREAU | 21 | NA | 26 | NA |
22 | ALWAYS SOMETHING THERE TO REMIND ME | NAKED EYES | 8 | 46 | 1897 | 0.03 |
23 | DON'T LET IT END | STYX | 6 | 60 | 6 | 7 |
24 | BILLIE JEAN | MICHAEL JACKSON | 1 | 2 | 2022 | 0.05 |
25 | STRANGER IN MY HOUSE | RONNIE MILSAP | 23 | NA | 55 | NA |
26 | FAMILY MAN | DARYL HALL & JOHN OATES | 6 | 67 | 7 | 5 |
27 | SHE'S A BEAUTY | TUBES | 10 | 58 | 342 | 0.13 |
28 | IT MIGHT BE YOU | STEPHEN BISHOP | 25 | 95 | 51 | 0.12 |
29 | SEPARATE WAYS (WORLDS APART) | JOURNEY | 8 | 38 | 1734 | 0.04 |
30 | TRY AGAIN | CHAMPAIGN | 23 | 85 | 9 | 2 |
31 | WELCOME TO HEARTLIGHT | KENNY LOGGINS | 24 | NA | 0 | NA |
32 | SOME KIND OF FRIEND | BARRY MANILOW | 26 | NA | 0 | NA |
33 | I COULDN'T SAY NO | ROBERT ELLIS ORRAL | 32 | NA | 0 | NA |
34 | SO WRONG | PATRICK SIMMONS | 30 | NA | 0 | NA |
35 | NEVER GONNA LET YOU GO | SERGIO MENDES | 4 | 16 | 86 | 1 |
36 | ONE ON ONE | DARYL HALL & JOHN OATES | 7 | 39 | 36 | 2 |
37 | DO YOU REALLY WANT TO HURT ME | CULTURE CLUB | 2 | 11 | 543 | 0.17 |
38 | GIMME ALL YOUR LOVIN' | ZZ TOP | 37 | NA | 1006 | NA |
39 | I'M STILL STANDING | ELTON JOHN | 12 | 74 | 530 | 0.05 |
40 | THE ONE THING | INXS | 30 | NA | 45 | NA |
Overall Lost Factor scores were relatively low in 1983 — in our original calculations, the highest LF was a 21; in some other years during the ‘80s, it’s around a 60. (In the early ‘60s, there is one song with a perfect Lost Factor score of 100.) Only a third of the Top 100 of 1983 had a Lost Factor above a 1.0 — our baseline for a song not getting airplay proportionate to its popularity at the time — when we measured last year.
In this spring of pop-music rebirth, the stats are even more impressive. The highest Lost Factor for any song in our new calculations is 15. Only 12 songs out of 40 have LF 1.0 or higher. Out of the 10 songs that didn’t make the year-end countdown, two of those songs are now getting significant airplay. In other words, half the songs on that week’s countdown can be said to have endured in some way.
But you can definitely see a pattern to those songs that do not endure. We asked a handful of readers to take a look at the May 14 chart and name all the songs that they did not know at the time (one listener who was following the charts named the songs he heard only on AT40).
- The 18 songs with a Lost Factor below a 1.0 had negligible mentions. There were indeed a few listeners (mostly those just turning on the radio around that time) who didn’t know even “Come On Eileen” or “Little Red Corvette.” But the combined “did not know” mentions among our 11 readers averaged 0.7 per song.
- The 12 songs that had a Lost Factor of 1.0 or higher averaged 2.9 “did not know” mentions among them. In that group, eight out of 11 readers did not think they heard Champaign’s “Try Again” on the Top 40 stations they listened to. Four each did not remember our Lost Factor leaders — Laura Branigan’s “Solitaire” and Rick Springfield’s “Affair of the Heart.”
- The 10 songs that didn’t even make the year-end list had an average 5.6 “did not know” mentions among them. Two songs, Patrick Simmons’ “So Wrong” and Robert Ellis Orrall & Carlene Carter’s “I Couldn’t Say No,” were unknown to 10 out of 11 respondents. Ronnie Milsap’s “Stranger in My House” and Kenny Loggins’ “Welcome to Heartlight” were unknown to seven of 11 at the time.
Over the last 13 months, we’ve noticed that many of the songs with high Lost Factors now are songs that were never quite real hits to begin with. Like “Affair of the Heart” or “Solitaire,” they were songs propelled by an artist’s career momentum — Springfield was coming off two big LP projects; Branigan was following up her “Gloria” breakthrough — but not power-rotation songs for the whole country. (Another song running on follow-up fumes, Bob Seger’s “Even Now,” missed the Top 100 and is a song that nearly half our respondents don’t remember as a current.)
The correlation between the songs heard on the radio now and the songs people remember hearing in the first place becomes even more obvious if songs missed the year-end chart. Songs such as “So Wrong” or “Some Kind of Friend,” Barry Manilow’s attempt to contemporize, are remembered by radio people and chart fans. But they weren’t even known by average listeners. The pejorative “turntable hit” meant a song that had airplay with no sales. That term is often applied to any song that didn’t make it to power rotation, but these are the true turntable hits.
If you were listening to the actual AT40 broadcast this week, Casey Kasem had interesting factoids for several of the least-remembered songs:
- Simmons was serving as this year’s chairman of “Bikers Fight Against Muscular Dystrophy.”
- Manilow had been certified by the Guinness Book of World Records for highest one-day gross sales for his recent Broadway engagement.
- The most unlikely front-sell was Kasem quoting from a Cash Box story, by current Billboard Country Update writer Tom Roland, about the Country-radio resistance to the pop-leaning “Stranger in My House,” including a quote in favor of the song from then-KLAC Los Angeles MD Cathy Hahn.
There are two songs that didn’t make the year-end Top 100 in 1983 that receive significant airplay in 2021. Duran Duran’s “Rio,” the subject of a new book this week, got 555 spins last week. None of our readers cited it as a song they didn’t hear when it was new. ZZ Top’s “Gimme All Your Lovin’” got 1,006 spins last week. Notably, there are three readers who say they didn’t hear it at the time. (An AOR smash, “Gimme All Your Lovin’” began ZZ Top’s CHR crossover, but not every station played it until after their biggest hit, “Legs,” a year later.)
If you’re wondering why we made good on Nichols’s threat to choose an ‘80s countdown, it’s because we asked readers to help choose the year to spotlight. By a few votes, the largest number asked for 1988-89, with strong support for 1973-74 as well. Ultimately, we went for the middle in part because those songs are better remembered and less polarizing than 1973-74 or the likewise-polarizing late ‘80s. But if you enjoyed pitting the Lost Factor vs, AT40, let us know. The countdown might just roll on.
Fascinating review! Please do more.
On a personal note, I was in college at that point and this music was everywhere. That said, the ones I hadn’t heard tend to echo those of your respondents – although I heard Champagne’s “Try Again” quite a bit and liked it. Some of the songs that didn’t make the year end top 100 were surprising to me too. Then again, 1983 was a standout for pop radio, much as years like 1967 or 1968 were. Not every song could break the top 100 in a year with a ton of choices.
Ronnie Milsap and Champaign both seem to depend a lot on whether you were in a Country-friendly and/or R&B market (and some were certainly still both at the time). R&B was just starting to crack Top 40 again thanks to Michael Jackson and Prince, but there was also a ton of great stuff that I heard on WDRQ Detroit that was deserving.
Sean, your review is, as usual, spot on. I was a high school grad in NYC at the time of this AT40 – and some of these songs I only heard for the very first time hearing the AT40 rebroadcast *this week* on XM! The other influence at this time was MTV, of course .
Of all the songs that didn’t make the year end, the two that are enduring now–ZZ Top and Duran Duran–probably both owe that to MTV. Despite being a middling radio hit, and going away quickly because “Is There Something I Should Know” was in the wings, there’s nobody who doesn’t remember hearing “Rio” at the time.
This pretty much proves what I’ve been trying to get people who are self-proclaimed “music fans” who complain about “tight playlists”. It doesn’t matter how a song charted THEN, it’s whether people remember it and want to hear it NOW.
Doing a quick cross-reference of the above list against the average airplay among Classic Hits stations via BDS, the higher your Lost Factor calculation, the less likely a song is to be getting airplay. The ones with high LFs are the ones that don’t even turn up at all.
Oh, and you created a memory flogger with me: “Rio” was the video that was just starting to play the very first time I tuned to MTV.
Lost Factor is based on BDS airplay–the highest LFs are those songs that had a lot of year-end chart points in their day but few spins now. So airplay isn’t correlation but causation. But what this exercise did show is that the airplay is relatively onbase–the songs that don’t test happen to be the ones that even industry people didn’t grow up with.
Ah. Thanks for clarifying the methodology.
Very surprising to me that “Jeopardy” only had four more spins than “Mr. Roboto” and “Stranger In My House” had almost twenty more than “One on One.” Anyhow, great chart. It’s interesting to see all the softer songs that peaked in the twenties and thinking how, just a year prior, they would have peaked 10-15 spots higher. And count me among the chart fans who think “So Wrong” should have been a bigger hit.
I’ve noticed that the early ’80s Soft Country holds its own in Lost Factor because it has Country Gold stations for exposure now. Country may have complained about “Stranger In My House” in 1983, but crossovers have the advantage the further back you go at the format.
Upvote for enjoying pitting the Lost Factor vs, AT40. I hope this countdown indeed rolls on. This study reinforces a point you have made during the Lost Factor – the disappearance of most of Daryl Hall & John Oates’ prolific and excellent catalog – with Family Man and One on One appearing here yet enjoying nary any spins in 2021. Especially in the case of Family Man, that song used to be inescapable on American radio.
I don’t remember “Family Man” being in gold libraries for very long, possibly because there were so many other choices, and also because for the biggest years of the CHR boom, stations didn’t play more than 1-2 oldies an hour and they had a lot to choose from. By the time stations began expanding their library again, CHR had moved in a different direction.